Wendell Cox rebuts the work of Arthur C. Nelson, who has projected CA as over-supplied with detached housing and in demand of small lot and multi-unit housing. Nelson's work has been the basis of long-range regional planning throughout the state.
Cox takes on the findings of a "sea-change" in household preferences away from suburban housing made by Nelson, Professor at the University of Utah, in a paper published by the Urban Land Institute and housing demand models developed for California's four
largest planning regions. As Cox notes Nelson's "demand estimates rely
strongly on data from three early 2000s stated preference surveys
conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)...which can mislead if people act differently
when they make choices in the real world."
Cox conducts his own analysis and comes to the opposite conclusion of Nelson with regards to housing supply and demand in the state. Using the
actual change in housing by type from the 2000 Census data to the
latest American Community Survey (ACS) 2006-2010 data, Cox finds that, "the demand data
indicates a strong continuing preference among Californians for detached
housing on conventional lots...If there is a sea change, it would appear to be in multi-family
housing. In contrast with the 62% share for multi-family dwellings
modeled by Nelson, the actual demand indicated in the census tract data
was two-thirds less, at 19% (Figure 3), well below the supply of 43
percent in 2000. This suggests a tanking of demand for multi-family housing, even as builders, in California and elsewhere, put more product on the market."
If accurate, Cox's models would upend the basis for much of the state's much lauded long-range regional planning.
FULL STORY: A Housing Preference Sea Change? Not in California
Planners Driving Californians Out Of State
In this opinion piece, transportation consultant Wendell Cox explains why residents are fleeing CA in droves. By not providing single family homes Cox feels most want, residents must find their quarter-acre lots elsewhere. He blames regional plans.
San Diego High-Speed Rail Plan Counts on Future Density
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Climate Crisis, Housing Crisis on a Collision Course
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Healing Through Parks: Altadena’s Path to Recovery After the Eaton Fire
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San Diego to Rescind Multi-Unit ADU Rule
The city wants to close a loophole that allowed developers to build apartment buildings on single-family lots as ADUs.
Electric Vehicles for All? Study Finds Disparities in Access and Incentives
A new UCLA study finds that while California has made progress in electric vehicle adoption, disadvantaged communities remain underserved in EV incentives, ownership, and charging access, requiring targeted policy changes to advance equity.
Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.
Planning for Universal Design
Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.
City of Albany
UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies
Mpact (formerly Rail~Volution)
Chaddick Institute at DePaul University
City of Piedmont, CA
Great Falls Development Authority, Inc.
HUDs Office of Policy Development and Research