Fact Check: New Housing Doesn’t Lead to Overcrowded Schools

A common refrain heard by locals opposed to new housing developments is that area schools can’t absorb the increase in students they’ll bring. As the nation approaches an “enrollment cliff,” the data tells a different story.

1 minute read

December 16, 2024, 10:00 AM PST

By Shelterforce


Group of elementary school children running in an outdoor corridor.

Monkey Business / Adobe Stock

A new Shelterforce article reveals that concerns about school overcrowding - a common argument against affordable housing development - contradict actual enrollment data showing widespread declines across U.S. school districts.

In many cases, proposed affordable housing projects faced opposition due to school capacity concerns, including Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where voters rejected a major affordable housing development partially due to school overcrowding fears. However, nationwide data shows K-12 enrollment is projected to drop by 8% between 2019 and 2030, with many districts already experiencing significant declines.

In California's Coachella Valley, where an ambitious 10,000-unit affordable housing initiative is underway, local school districts report continued enrollment decreases rather than overcrowding. One district has lost over 2,000 students since 2018, while another operates at just 75% capacity.

  • The enrollment decline stems from multiple factors, including:
  • Falling birth rates since the 2008 recession
  • Broad demographic shifts
  • COVID-19 impacts on public school enrollment

School administrators note that declining enrollment threatens school funding and stability, with many districts actively seeking more students. As Adam Bosch of Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress states in the article, "We should be on our knees praying for a hailstorm of children to fall from the sky."

Tuesday, December 3, 2024 in Shelterforce Magazine

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Close-up of "Apartment for rent" sign in red text on black background in front of blurred building

Trump Administration Could Effectively End Housing Voucher Program

Federal officials are eyeing major cuts to the Section 8 program that helps millions of low-income households pay rent.

April 21, 2025 - Housing Wire

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

April 23, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Ken Jennings stands in front of Snohomish County Community Transit bus.

Ken Jennings Launches Transit Web Series

The Jeopardy champ wants you to ride public transit.

April 20, 2025 - Streetsblog USA

Yellow electric school bus with preteen students exiting.

California Invests Additional $5M in Electric School Buses

The state wants to electrify all of its school bus fleets by 2035.

April 25 - Associated Press

City Hall building in Austin, Texas.

Austin Launches $2M Homelessness Prevention Fund

A new grant program from the city’s Homeless Strategy Office will fund rental assistance and supportive services.

April 25 - Spectrum Local News

Brick school building with mid-sized tree on front lawn.

Alabama School Forestry Initiative Brings Trees to Schoolyards

Trees can improve physical and mental health for students and commnity members.

April 25 - Governing