Fact Check: New Housing Doesn’t Lead to Overcrowded Schools

A common refrain heard by locals opposed to new housing developments is that area schools can’t absorb the increase in students they’ll bring. As the nation approaches an “enrollment cliff,” the data tells a different story.

1 minute read

December 16, 2024, 10:00 AM PST

By Shelterforce


Group of elementary school children running in an outdoor corridor.

Monkey Business / Adobe Stock

A new Shelterforce article reveals that concerns about school overcrowding - a common argument against affordable housing development - contradict actual enrollment data showing widespread declines across U.S. school districts.

In many cases, proposed affordable housing projects faced opposition due to school capacity concerns, including Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where voters rejected a major affordable housing development partially due to school overcrowding fears. However, nationwide data shows K-12 enrollment is projected to drop by 8% between 2019 and 2030, with many districts already experiencing significant declines.

In California's Coachella Valley, where an ambitious 10,000-unit affordable housing initiative is underway, local school districts report continued enrollment decreases rather than overcrowding. One district has lost over 2,000 students since 2018, while another operates at just 75% capacity.

  • The enrollment decline stems from multiple factors, including:
  • Falling birth rates since the 2008 recession
  • Broad demographic shifts
  • COVID-19 impacts on public school enrollment

School administrators note that declining enrollment threatens school funding and stability, with many districts actively seeking more students. As Adam Bosch of Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress states in the article, "We should be on our knees praying for a hailstorm of children to fall from the sky."

Tuesday, December 3, 2024 in Shelterforce Magazine

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Bird's eye view of manufactured home park.

Manufactured Crisis: Losing the Nation’s Largest Source of Unsubsidized Affordable Housing

Manufactured housing communities have long been an affordable housing option for millions of people living in the U.S., but that affordability is disappearing rapidly. How did we get here?

March 25, 2025 - Shelterforce

U-Haul truck on road with blurred grassy roadside in background.

Americans May Be Stuck — But Why?

Americans are moving a lot less than they once did, and that is a problem. While Yoni Applebaum, in his highly-publicized article Stuck, gets the reasons badly wrong, it's still important to ask: why are we moving so much less than before?

March 27, 2025 - Alan Mallach

Rusty abandoned oil well and equipment with prickly pear cactus next to it in West Texas.

Using Old Oil and Gas Wells for Green Energy Storage

Penn State researchers have found that repurposing abandoned oil and gas wells for geothermal-assisted compressed-air energy storage can boost efficiency, reduce environmental risks, and support clean energy and job transitions.

March 31, 2025 - Pennsylvania State University

Downtown Los Angeles skyline viewed from a distance with freeway and trees in foreground.

Updating LA’s Tree Rules Could Bring More Shade to Underserved Neighborhoods

A new USC study finds that relaxing Los Angeles’ outdated tree planting guidelines could significantly expand urban tree canopy and reduce shade disparities in lower-income neighborhoods, though infrastructure investments are also needed.

6 hours ago - USC Dornsife

Aerial view of Claifornia aqueduct with green orchard on one side.

California's Canal Solar Projects Aim to Conserve Resources and Expand Clean Energy

California’s Project Nexus has begun generating electricity from solar panels installed over irrigation canals, with researchers and state agencies exploring statewide expansion to conserve water and boost clean energy production.

7 hours ago - Turlock Journal

Close-up of older woman's hands resting on white modern heating radiator mounted on wall indoors.

HHS Staff Cuts Gut Energy Assistance Program

The full staff of a federal program that distributes heating and cooling assistance for low-income families was laid off, jeopardizing the program’s operations.

April 3 - The New York Times