Is A Denser Urban World Inevitable?

Writing in Foreign Policy, Joel Kotkin argues that increasing urbanization and density are not inevitable realities.

1 minute read

August 18, 2010, 5:00 AM PDT

By Nate Berg


"A recent World Bank report on global megacities insists that when it comes to spurring economic growth, denser is better: 'To try to spread out economic activity,' the report argues, is to snuff it. Historian Peter Hall seems to be speaking for a whole generation of urbanists when he argues that we are on the cusp of a 'coming golden age' of great cities.

The only problem is, these predictions may not be accurate. Yes, the percentage of people living in cities is clearly growing. In 1975, Tokyo was the largest city in the world, with over 26 million residents, and there were only two other cities worldwide with more than 10 million residents. By 2025, the U.N. projects that there may be 27 cities of that size. The proportion of the world's population living in cities, which has already shot up from 14 percent in 1900 to about 50 percent in 2008, could be 70 percent by 2050. But here's what the boosters don't tell you: It's far less clear whether the extreme centralization and concentration advocated by these new urban utopians is inevitable -- and it's not at all clear that it's desirable."

Kotkin suggests that policies that encourage urban density lead to inequality, and that suburban-style developments offer more choice and more economic flexibility.

Monday, August 16, 2010 in Foreign Policy

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Wastewater pouring out from a pipe.

Alabama: Trump Terminates Settlements for Black Communities Harmed By Raw Sewage

Trump deemed the landmark civil rights agreement “illegal DEI and environmental justice policy.”

April 13, 2025 - Inside Climate News

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

April 16, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Black and white photos of camp made up of small 'earthquake shacks' in Dolores Park in 1906 after the San Francisco earthquake.

The 120 Year Old Tiny Home Villages That Sheltered San Francisco’s Earthquake Refugees

More than a century ago, San Francisco mobilized to house thousands of residents displaced by the 1906 earthquake. Could their strategy offer a model for the present?

April 15, 2025 - Charles F. Bloszies

People walking up and down stairs in New York City subway station.

In Both Crashes and Crime, Public Transportation is Far Safer than Driving

Contrary to popular assumptions, public transportation has far lower crash and crime rates than automobile travel. For safer communities, improve and encourage transit travel.

April 18 - Scientific American

White public transit bus with bike on front bike rack in Nashville, Tennessee.

Report: Zoning Reforms Should Complement Nashville’s Ambitious Transit Plan

Without reform, restrictive zoning codes will limit the impact of the city’s planned transit expansion and could exclude some of the residents who depend on transit the most.

April 18 - Bloomberg CityLab

An engineer controlling a quality of water ,aerated activated sludge tank at a waste water treatment plant.

Judge Orders Release of Frozen IRA, IIJA Funding

The decision is a victory for environmental groups who charged that freezing funds for critical infrastructure and disaster response programs caused “real and irreparable harm” to communities.

April 18 - Smart Cities Dive