With Travel Behavior Still in Flux, Transit Ridership Projections are Harder to Make

Transit agencies use complex models to predict future ridership, but these have not yet caught up with the still-changing post-pandemic travel needs of transit users.

2 minute read

March 9, 2023, 10:00 AM PST

By Diana Ionescu @aworkoffiction


Chicago Transit Authority

Sorbis / Shutterstock

With post-pandemic travel patterns still in flux, predicting transit ridership is becoming more challenging than ever, writes Jared Brey in Governing.

Despite the growth of sophisticated modeling methods in recent years, the most that many transit agencies can say at this point is that “The future is either going to be very bleak, surprisingly OK, or, in all likelihood, an unpredictable mixture of the two.” Brey explains that “Transit agencies try to predict future ridership for all types of scenarios — not just when making their yearly budgets but also when considering the impact of service changes or fare increases, and when applying for funding to build out new bus and train lines.” Now, agencies must collect new data to understand how the needs of transit users are changing.

Brey points out that even though ridership projections are used in federal grantmaking, “projections made in decades past have often proven to be wildly off-base.” More recently, agencies receiving New Starts federal grants are required to provide before-and-after studies to assess the accuracy of their projections. 

Carole Turley Voulgaris, an assistant professor of urban planning at the Harvard Graduate School of Design, notes that “In some ways, the roughly sketched scenarios that many transit agencies are projecting in their budget documents have an advantage over highly complex processes that are used to generate a single prediction of the most likely future scenario.” With so much uncertainty still looming, understanding the range of possible scenarios can help agencies plan more effectively for a variety of future situations.

Tuesday, March 7, 2023 in Governing

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Bird's eye view of manufactured home park.

Manufactured Crisis: Losing the Nation’s Largest Source of Unsubsidized Affordable Housing

Manufactured housing communities have long been an affordable housing option for millions of people living in the U.S., but that affordability is disappearing rapidly. How did we get here?

March 25, 2025 - Shelterforce

U-Haul truck on road with blurred grassy roadside in background.

Americans May Be Stuck — But Why?

Americans are moving a lot less than they once did, and that is a problem. While Yoni Applebaum, in his highly-publicized article Stuck, gets the reasons badly wrong, it's still important to ask: why are we moving so much less than before?

March 27, 2025 - Alan Mallach

Rusty abandoned oil well and equipment with prickly pear cactus next to it in West Texas.

Using Old Oil and Gas Wells for Green Energy Storage

Penn State researchers have found that repurposing abandoned oil and gas wells for geothermal-assisted compressed-air energy storage can boost efficiency, reduce environmental risks, and support clean energy and job transitions.

March 31, 2025 - Pennsylvania State University

Colorful blocky apartment building facade.

Minneapolis Bans Rent-Setting Software

Four cities have enacted restrictions on algorithmic software that can inflate rent costs.

6 hours ago - Stateline

Silver electric BMW car parked in driveway of home in Oakland, California.

Oakland to Add 244 New EV Chargers

Oakland plans to launch its new charging network at eight locations by the end of 2025.

7 hours ago - City of Oakland

Sculpture of seated Jane Goodall holding hands with chimp on green lawn.

Jane Goodall Inspires with Message of Hope, Resilience, and Environmental Action

Speaking in Pasadena, Jane Goodall offered a hopeful and inspirational message, urging global compassion, environmental responsibility, and the power of individual action to shape a better future.

April 1 - Pasadena Star-News