With Travel Behavior Still in Flux, Transit Ridership Projections are Harder to Make

Transit agencies use complex models to predict future ridership, but these have not yet caught up with the still-changing post-pandemic travel needs of transit users.

2 minute read

March 9, 2023, 10:00 AM PST

By Diana Ionescu @aworkoffiction


Chicago Transit Authority

Sorbis / Shutterstock

With post-pandemic travel patterns still in flux, predicting transit ridership is becoming more challenging than ever, writes Jared Brey in Governing.

Despite the growth of sophisticated modeling methods in recent years, the most that many transit agencies can say at this point is that “The future is either going to be very bleak, surprisingly OK, or, in all likelihood, an unpredictable mixture of the two.” Brey explains that “Transit agencies try to predict future ridership for all types of scenarios — not just when making their yearly budgets but also when considering the impact of service changes or fare increases, and when applying for funding to build out new bus and train lines.” Now, agencies must collect new data to understand how the needs of transit users are changing.

Brey points out that even though ridership projections are used in federal grantmaking, “projections made in decades past have often proven to be wildly off-base.” More recently, agencies receiving New Starts federal grants are required to provide before-and-after studies to assess the accuracy of their projections. 

Carole Turley Voulgaris, an assistant professor of urban planning at the Harvard Graduate School of Design, notes that “In some ways, the roughly sketched scenarios that many transit agencies are projecting in their budget documents have an advantage over highly complex processes that are used to generate a single prediction of the most likely future scenario.” With so much uncertainty still looming, understanding the range of possible scenarios can help agencies plan more effectively for a variety of future situations.

Tuesday, March 7, 2023 in Governing

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Wastewater pouring out from a pipe.

Alabama: Trump Terminates Settlements for Black Communities Harmed By Raw Sewage

Trump deemed the landmark civil rights agreement “illegal DEI and environmental justice policy.”

April 13, 2025 - Inside Climate News

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

April 16, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Black and white photos of camp made up of small 'earthquake shacks' in Dolores Park in 1906 after the San Francisco earthquake.

The 120 Year Old Tiny Home Villages That Sheltered San Francisco’s Earthquake Refugees

More than a century ago, San Francisco mobilized to house thousands of residents displaced by the 1906 earthquake. Could their strategy offer a model for the present?

April 15, 2025 - Charles F. Bloszies

Crowds of people walking and biking along waterfront in Sunset Dunes Park in San Francisco, California on a sunny day.

San Francisco Opens Park on Former Great Highway

The Sunset Dunes park’s grand opening attracted both fans and detractors.

6 hours ago - Mission Local

Portland Oregon Bus

Oregon Legislature to Consider Transit Funding Laws

One proposal would increase the state’s payroll tax by .08% to fund transit agencies and expand service.

7 hours ago - KATU.com

Houston, Texas skyline.

Housing Vouchers as a Key Piece of Houston’s Housing Strategy

The Houston Housing Authority supports 19,000 households through the housing voucher program.

April 22 - Urban Edge