How Some Cities Are Losing People and Staying Prosperous

Population loss doesn't always equate to economic decline. Richard Florida discusses a study examining American metros that are retaining their economic vitality as they shrink.

1 minute read

July 1, 2019, 8:00 AM PDT

By Philip Rojc @PhilipRojc


Texas residential

SoleilC / Shutterstock

"Population growth is a crude measure of prosperity: As long as a place attracts or retains specific talent, it can lose general population and still be prosperous," Richard Florida writes. As evidence, he points to a study by Cardiff University's Maxwell Hartt looking at the economic performance of shrinking cities.

While we often picture shrinking cities as economically bereft, "shrinking population and economic decline don’t always come hand-in-hand: A striking subset of cities with declining populations are in fact economically prosperous." Hartt finds that 27 percent of shrinking cities have economic indicators outperforming their regional average. Most of them are suburbs and outlying towns close to large, wealthy metro areas. 

Florida speculates that what sets these places apart is their ability to retain educated residents, who may be professionally based in the corresponding big cities: "97 percent of prosperous shrinking cities had a higher proportion of college-educated individuals than their regional average."

Thursday, June 13, 2019 in CityLab

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

High-rise apartment buildings in Waikiki, Hawaii with steep green mountains in background.

Study: Maui’s Plan to Convert Vacation Rentals to Long-Term Housing Could Cause Nearly $1 Billion Economic Loss

The plan would reduce visitor accommodation by 25,% resulting in 1,900 jobs lost.

April 6, 2025 - Honolulu Civil Beat

Two yellow and white Dallas Area Rapid Transit light rail streetcars at station in Dallas, Texas.

North Texas Transit Leaders Tout Benefits of TOD for Growing Region

At a summit focused on transit-oriented development, policymakers discussed how North Texas’ expanded light rail system can serve as a tool for economic growth.

April 3, 2025 - KERA News

Blue and white Seattle Link light rail train exiting concrete Downtown Bellevue Tunnel in Bellevue, WA.

Why Should We Subsidize Public Transportation?

Many public transit agencies face financial stress due to rising costs, declining fare revenue, and declining subsidies. Transit advocates must provide a strong business case for increasing public transit funding.

April 7, 2025 - Todd Litman

Amtrak Acela

How to Make US Trains Faster

Changes to boarding platforms and a switch to electric trains could improve U.S. passenger rail service without the added cost of high-speed rail.

3 hours ago - Bloomberg CityLab

Mural showing tools and craft supplies with banner reading 'Things are made here' in front of makerspace in Columbia, Missouri.

Columbia’s Revitalized ‘Loop’ Is a Hub for Local Entrepreneurs

A focus on small businesses is helping a commercial corridor in Columbia, Missouri thrive.

4 hours ago - Next City

Close-up of wood log with emerald ash borer larvae tracks etched in the wood.

Invasive Insect Threatens Minnesota’s Ash Forests

The Emerald Ash Borer is a rapidly spreading invasive pest threatening Minnesota’s ash trees, and homeowners are encouraged to plant diverse replacement species, avoid moving ash firewood, and monitor for signs of infestation.

5 hours ago - The Bemidji Pioneer