Some developed countries in the world are expected to lose half of their population, in a development that might seem impossible while the world population continues its climb toward 8 billion.
"The world's population is likely to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by the end of the century," reports Amy Woodyat, sharing news from a study by researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine.
"By 2100, 183 of 195 countries will not have fertility rates required to maintain the current population, with a projected 2.1 births per woman," according to Woodyat. "Some 23 countries -- including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain -- will see populations shrink by more than 50%, researchers said."
One exception to the trend, according to the projections, will be sub-Saharan Africa, where the population could triple by 2100.
The changing birth rate and expected population decline is credited to better education and access to birth control for women. The consequences of a worldwide population decline could include declining economic growth and "negative implications" for labor forces and social support systems, according to Woodyat's explanation of the study. "The authors suggest that population decline could be offset by immigration, and that countries with liberal immigration policies will be better able to both maintain population size and support economic growth -- even as fertility falls."
More coverage on the new study is also available from The Guardian.
Related on Planetizen: "What Happened to the Population Bomb?" (June 2015)
FULL STORY: World's population likely to shrink after 50 years
Depopulation Projected in Thousands of US Cities
Many small and mid-sized cities could see a decline before 2100.
California Decline: Population Likely Peaked Three Years Ago
A July projection from the state's Demographic Research Unit indicates that the population in 2060 may be about what it is today.
Census: U.S. Population Growing Slower Than Any Point Since the Nation's Founding
The pandemic has added increased mortality to decreasing birth rates and decreasing international immigration.
Alabama: Trump Terminates Settlements for Black Communities Harmed By Raw Sewage
Trump deemed the landmark civil rights agreement “illegal DEI and environmental justice policy.”
Study: Maui’s Plan to Convert Vacation Rentals to Long-Term Housing Could Cause Nearly $1 Billion Economic Loss
The plan would reduce visitor accommodation by 25% resulting in 1,900 jobs lost.
Planetizen Federal Action Tracker
A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.
Waymo Gets Permission to Map SF’s Market Street
If allowed to operate on the traffic-restricted street, Waymo’s autonomous taxis would have a leg up over ride-hailing competitors — and counter the city’s efforts to grow bike and pedestrian on the thoroughfare.
Parklet Symposium Highlights the Success of Shared Spaces
Parklets got a boost during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the concept was translated to outdoor dining programs that offered restaurants a lifeline during the shutdown.
Federal Homelessness Agency Places Entire Staff on Leave
The U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness is the only federal agency dedicated to preventing and ending homelessness.
Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.
Planning for Universal Design
Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.
Caltrans
Smith Gee Studio
Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS)
City of Grandview
Harvard GSD Executive Education
Toledo-Lucas County Plan Commissions
Salt Lake City
NYU Wagner Graduate School of Public Service