New Models of Risk Assessment Needed in Wildfire Zones

About 350,000 residents have lost wildfire insurance in recent years, as a series of catastrophic fires have swept the state of California and insurance industry struggles to keep up with climate change.

1 minute read

October 24, 2019, 9:00 AM PDT

By James Brasuell @CasualBrasuell


Fuel Break Wildfire

Pacific Southwest Region USFWS / Flickr

Wildfire insurance is out of reach for many Californians, according to an article by Gireesh Shrimali, and the industry needs to adjust to the new climate realities of the state.

"Over the past several years, premiums have risen significantly – as much as 300% to 500% [pdf] in many cases. And in many high-risk areas, insurers are increasingly opting not to renew coverage," according to Shrimali. In all, 350,000 Californians have lost insurance coverage since a second year of catastrophic fires hit the state in 2018.

According to Shrimali, California needs a new way to calculate risk given the challenges of climate change in the state.

Challenges for insurers include the increasing severity of risk, the danger of adverse selection (when low-risk customers subsidize high-risk customers), and the effects of spiraling premiums.

To manage these risks, Shrimali suggests a few specific measures that would achieve better models for assessing and pricing risk as well as steps to ensure a "robust and guaranteed demand for wildfire insurance, which will attract private insurers into the market."

Thursday, October 17, 2019 in The Conversation

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

High-rise apartment buildings in Waikiki, Hawaii with steep green mountains in background.

Study: Maui’s Plan to Convert Vacation Rentals to Long-Term Housing Could Cause Nearly $1 Billion Economic Loss

The plan would reduce visitor accommodation by 25,% resulting in 1,900 jobs lost.

April 6, 2025 - Honolulu Civil Beat

Two yellow and white Dallas Area Rapid Transit light rail streetcars at station in Dallas, Texas.

North Texas Transit Leaders Tout Benefits of TOD for Growing Region

At a summit focused on transit-oriented development, policymakers discussed how North Texas’ expanded light rail system can serve as a tool for economic growth.

April 3, 2025 - KERA News

Rusty abandoned oil well and equipment with prickly pear cactus next to it in West Texas.

Using Old Oil and Gas Wells for Green Energy Storage

Penn State researchers have found that repurposing abandoned oil and gas wells for geothermal-assisted compressed-air energy storage can boost efficiency, reduce environmental risks, and support clean energy and job transitions.

March 31, 2025 - Pennsylvania State University

Sign for Palisades Recreation Center in Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles, California.

Private Donations Propel Early Restoration of Palisades Playground

Los Angeles has secured over $1.3 million in private funding to restore the Pacific Palisades playground months ahead of schedule, creating a modern, accessible space that supports community healing after recent wildfires.

6 hours ago - Los Angeles Mayor

Aerial view of oil field in California with pumpjacks at sunset.

From Blight to Benefit: Early Results From California’s Equitable Cleanup Program

The Equitable Community Revitalization Grant (ECRG) program is reshaping brownfield redevelopment by prioritizing projects in low-income and environmental justice communities, emphasizing equity, transparency, and community benefits.

7 hours ago - The Othering & Belonging Institute

"Welcome to fabulous Las Vegas Nevada" sign with mottled shade from palm tree.

Planting Relief: Tackling Las Vegas Heat One Tree at a Time

Nevada Plants, a Las Vegas-based nonprofit, is combating the city’s extreme urban heat by giving away trees to residents in underserved neighborhoods, promoting shade, sustainability, and community health.

April 10 - KTNV