The COVID demographic is changing. What began in the current resurgence as largely a younger cohort is now affecting older, more vulnerable group seen in the pandemic's first phase in the Northeast. The Villages, Florida, would appear vulnerable.
"The Florida Department of Health reported 10,347 coronavirus infections Monday — the sixth consecutive day Florida’s cases have grown by more than 10,000," reports Anastasia Dawson for the Tampa Bay Times. "While the number of infections is growing, a declining rate of positive tests has provided hope in recent days that the state could soon meet its target threshold of 10 percent per day."
Not likely. The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center puts it at 18.72% on July 20, the nation's fourth highest after Puerto Rico, Arizona, and Nevada. It continues to lead the nation with 51.9 new cases per 100,000 people, followed by Louisiana with 46.3, according to Covid Exit Strategy.
"The death rate is increasing as coronavirus infections pick up again among elderly and vulnerable populations," adds Dawson.
The median age for Florida’s coronavirus cases has held steady for days at 41. The median age declined from the mid-50s near the end of April to the early 30s through May.
"The elderly and those with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems and diabetes are more likely to develop serious illness," states the Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Resources webpage. That should concern residents of the nation's largest retirment community, The Villages, located largely in Sumter County, Florida, which "has the oldest median age (62.7 years) of any US county and the highest percentage of residents aged 65 and older—at 55.6%," according to Wikipedia.
"From March through mid-June, there were fewer than 100 cases in the Villages, a sprawling community in Central Florida where about 120,000 people mostly 55 and older live," reports
Since the beginning of July, hospital admissions of residents from the Villages have quadrupled at University of Florida Health The Villages, the hospital’s critical care doctors said. As of last week, the hospital admitted 29 Villages residents, all of them with the virus, said Dr. Anil Gogineni, a pulmonologist and critical care doctor there. That was up from the single digits three weeks before.
In Sumter County, the biggest of three counties where most of the Villages is concentrated, the number of cases ballooned from 68 in the first week of June to more than 270 last week, according to the county’s health department.
Florida's COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard shows 836 total cases for Sumter County as of July 20, with the largest share being in the 65-74 years of age bracket. However, on a per capita basis, the county is doing the best in terms of per capita infections among the state's 67 counties, with 130 cases per 100,000 people in the last seven days, according to The New York Times Florida Coronavirus Map and Case Count.
"That the Villages had initially seemed to escape the worst of the virus had been a point of pride for Gov. Ron DeSantis," adds
The governor, a Republican who has strong support from the community, brushed off concerns about the risks during a visit in April. “There were articles written saying, ‘Oh, the Villages is going to crash and burn,’” he said. “They have like a 2 percent or 2.5 percent infection rate.”
But when he returned early in July, the infection rate had jumped to 9 percent.
Much of the data of the data showing that older people are becoming more affected by the virus in the state is not specific to Sumter County. Due to the age restrictions in The Villages, multigenerational households, a major source of transmission, would likely be far fewer than elsewhere.
Prepared for more cases
"But even as cases climb, doctors in the Villages say they are prepared for an increase in patients," adds de Freytas-Tamura. "The hospital has enough capacity and antiviral drugs, Dr. Gogineni said."
One area of concern, however, is the four nursing homes in the community, and a number of others on the outskirts that also cater to residents.
De Freytas-Tamura goes on to describe many of the activities in the community, some carrying an obvious degree of viral risks, such as house partices where thare are many "golf cars parked out front,” but most of the gatherings appear to be outdoors. What's more interesting is reading that the lack of communications among residents on the virus.
People are being very secretive,” said Neil Craver, 66, who said he got the virus two weeks ago. “It’s like the plague and they don’t want to let anybody else know that they’re sick.”
Residents say they have not received any directions about informing the management if they get sick.
Earlier in the piece, it was noted that the chief medical officer of the Villages, Jeffrey Lowenkron, had emailed residents that cases were increasing, urging them to take "proactive steps to reduce the risk of disease transmission.” An undated advisory from his office notes that the caseload is much higher in Lake and Marion counties in which The Villages is located.
Related in Planetizen:
- The Villages and the Dangers of Holding Too Tightly to the Past, July 20, 2020
- The Stage for Trump's Racist Tweet: The Villages, Florida, July 13, 2020
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