Before the recession, bumper Arizona home sales led to predictions that the state's two largest cities might merge by 2040. The downturn stalled those forecasts, but now they're being revisited.
"New census data shows Maricopa County grew faster than any other county in the nation for the second year in a row," Catherine Reagor writes. "Population projections for metro Phoenix could mean it will join with Tucson somewhere in Pinal County in about two decades, if the numbers are right and the Valley's growth engine doesn't stall again."
Pre-recession, rampant housing speculation led to inflated home sales numbers, convincing some urban researchers that the Phoenix metropolitan area might join with that of Tucson to become a "super-sized" megaregion.
But despite the fact that previous estimates were overly high, "the state's population growth numbers aren't as dependent on housing, and tallies during the crash have been revised."
"Arizona's population, now at almost 7.2 million, is expected to grow 1.6 percent in 2018 and 1.5 percent 2019, adding a bit more than 100,000 residents both years," Reagor writes. "Most of Arizona's residents live in metro Phoenix and Tucson."
FULL STORY: Could population growth propel Phoenix and Tucson to merge?
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UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies
Mpact (formerly Rail~Volution)
Chaddick Institute at DePaul University
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Great Falls Development Authority, Inc.
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