Do Commute Times Create an Inherent Limit to Sprawl?

Charlie Gardner parses the data on mean commuting times recently released as part of the 2010 ACS estimates for metropolitan statistical areas, and wonders what the maximum mean travel time suggests for the urban form of America's cities.

1 minute read

August 29, 2012, 7:00 AM PDT

By Jonathan Nettler @nettsj


When comparing the mean commuting times among America's large metro areas, something funny appears. "Although population is strongly correlated with commuting time,
particularly when all metro areas over population one million are
included in the sample, the differences are surprisingly small," notes Gardner. For example, "Orlando, with an urbanized area of only 600 square miles, has a mean
commute just twelve seconds shorter than Dallas, which covers 1,780
square miles, although both cities have comparable densities, employment
centralization and highway miles per capita."

So is there an inherent limit to the potential extent to which development will sprawl into the fringes of a metropolitan area based on a maximum mean commute time of around 30 minutes? Gardner seems to think so and describes how development in, and around Houston, might be shaped by such forces. 

"This theory doesn't imply that outwards expansion will come to a
screeching halt once some magical distance from the center is reached," writes Gardner,
"but that the balance of new construction will attempt to shift to the
core as commutes from fringe areas begin to significantly exceed 30
minutes."

 

Thanks to Daniel Lippman

Tuesday, July 24, 2012 in Old Urbanist

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Historic homes in St. Augustine, Florida.

Florida Considers Legalizing ADUs

Current state law allows — but doesn’t require — cities to permit accessory dwelling units in single-family residential neighborhoods.

March 18, 2025 - Newsweek

Bird's eye view of manufactured home park.

Manufactured Crisis: Losing the Nation’s Largest Source of Unsubsidized Affordable Housing

Manufactured housing communities have long been an affordable housing option for millions of people living in the U.S., but that affordability is disappearing rapidly. How did we get here?

March 25, 2025 - Shelterforce

Close-up of rear car bumper in traffic on freeway.

Research Shows More Roads = More Driving

A national study shows, once again, that increasing road supply induces additional vehicle travel, particularly over the long run.

March 23, 2025 - Road Capacity as a Fundamental Determinant of Vehicle Travel

Cars parked and plugged in at an EV charging lot in Santa Monica, California surrounded by palm trees.

EV Chargers Now Outnumber Gas Pumps by Nearly 50% in California

Fast chargers still lag behind amidst rapid growth.

March 28 - Inside EVs

Construction workers on a suspended platform are installing thermal insulation on the facade of a modern apartment building, improving energy efficiency and reducing heat loss during cold weather.

Affordable Housing Renovations Halt Mid-Air Amidst DOGE Clawbacks

HUD may rescind over a billion dollars earmarked for green building upgrades.

March 28 - Bloomberg CityLab

Sign above entrance of United States Department of Transportation.

Has Anyone at USDOT Read Donald Shoup?

USDOT employees, who are required to go back to the office, will receive free parking at the agency’s D.C. offices — flying in the face of a growing research body that calls for pricing parking at its real value.

March 28 - Streetsblog USA