Can Sustainable Cities Save The Planet?
Can Sustainable Cities Save The Planet?
By Walter Libby
http://theendpoint.blogspot.com/
Can sustainable save the planet? This is a good question and it deserves a good answer. But a more relevant question is, can sustainable cities save the United States? Our rising unemployment rate in the global economy has finally caught up with us—we are out of bubbles and are now a nation at risk. With nine straight months of job losses and a looming financial crisis, our prospects look grim—despite the efforts being made to prop up our financial system.
The problem is we are in liquidity trap. Here, despite low interest rates, the infusion of new blood, the cash that is being pumped into banks will just sit in their vaults as recession forces consumers to cut back on spending forcing firms to cut back on production, investments and workers perpetuating the cycle pushing the economy ever deeper into crisis.
The question now becomes, how do we get out the trap? We can’t look to a turn around in residential construction. But we can look to a turn around in our thinking as we shift from urban sprawl to the development of new cities designed along sustainable lines. So together with their development and the investments in renewable energy they will begin to pull us out of the trap.
The advent of peak oil has convinced venture capitalists to get busy in saving the planet. Now we have to sell the idea of new cities to investors, developers, and the people, and that requires a model that captures their imagination and investment dollars. So following in the footsteps of Ebenezer Howard, here’s how I see cities of tomorrow: clusters of neighborhoods (linked by elevated transportation arteries shared by electric vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and rapid transit systems) will form the city. These neighborhoods are large terraced multi-storied structures sheltering thousands. Here their terraces are reserved for greenhouses and homes and their centers for factories and fully controlled-environment farms.
So, as you walk out into your neighborhood you encounter not hallways but wide walkways, allies and breezeways lined with trees and plants, schools, hospitals, libraries, theaters, businesses, shops, and restaurants—all within walking distance, or a short elevator ride. And when you go to the first floor, at ground level you find barns (for pigs, beef and dairy cows, and chickens that are harvested next door) opening onto natural habitant mixed with organic farms, orchards, parks, playgrounds, and golf courses. Here, instead of sending our table and produce straps, our unwanted leftovers, dry bread, spoiled fruit to landfills, we recycle them to neighborhood barnyards or to community organic orchards and gardens.
Once there is a sufficient population, a larger central city is built. This is the cultural center of the whole. Here you have universities, the larger hospitals, museums, aquariums, zoos, sports stadiums, theaters for the performing arts, large central parks, plazas, street performers, and so on.
New cities are going to play a significant part in our economic recovery. And they are not going to be connected by super highways but by railroads carrying passengers, cars, trucks, commodities, construction equipment and freight.
New cities, as an alternative to unsustainable urban sprawl, by itself is a strong selling point. Add to that greater efficiency, lower taxes, and a mix of town and country. But its best pitch to the captains of industry is that they are necessary for our national security and confidence in general—for Wall Street and Main Street, and for those in the world who doubt that America can resolve its economic crisis, our ability to bootstrap our economy.
Yet, while the development of new cities will rev up our economy structural problems still plague the global economy—it’s unbalanced and so unsustainable as witnessed by our mounting trade deficits. And given that the financial crisis was brought on by our loss of jobs to the global economy (the housing bubble was the result of the Fed lowering interest rates to rock bottom in a desperate and vain attempt to avoid recession following the collapse of the dot.com bubble), we have to ponder the question, is capitalism collapsing? And this poses challenges not only for America and democracy in general, but for communist China, Russia and Venezuela as well.
China, having taken the capitalist road, has pretty much captured the means production as multinationals, in a race to the bottom, in a race to China to beat their competitors, have left in their wake socioeconomic crisis in their respective countries—notably in the U.S. In the process China has pretty much become the factory to the world. And in doing so have created a contradiction in the global economy—who are going to buy its products? This is a contradiction that threatens China.
And Russia and Venezuela, as oil prices plummet with a global collapse, face economic ruin—along with the rest of the oil producing countries. We need a new global order, a new world agenda.
Mikhail Gorbachev has stated such in The Search For A New Beginning: Developing A New Civilization.
Essentially, Gorbachev is touting sustainable development. Yet, he says “It has been the fond hope of many that the end of the Cold War would liberate the international community to work together to avert threats and work in a spirit of cooperation in addressing the dangerous problems that affect the world as a whole. But, despite the numerous summit meetings, conferences, congresses, negotiations, and agreements, there does not appear to have been any tangible progress… Between the old order and the one lies a period of transition that we must go through—moving toward a new structure of international relations marked by cooperating, interacting, and taking advantage of new opportunities. What we are seeing today, however, looks rather like a world disorder.
It is my belief that today’s policy makers lack a necessary sense of perspective and the ability to evaluate the consequences of their actions. What is absolutely necessary is a critical reassessment of the views and approaches that currently lie at the basis of political thinking and a new combination of player to envision and carry us through to the next phase of human development.”
The next phase of human development is the development of new sustainable cities throughout the world. As a start we should also pursue the moral equivalent of war. The industrialized nations should form an economic coalition to assist the Palestinians, the nations of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and other nations in turmoil, in the development of new cities. Peace through prosperity.
The idea of cooperation didn’t begin with Gorbachev, it began with the atom bomb—war was out and cooperation was in. So after World War II, The World Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) came into existence. Their combined mission is to foster economic growth, high levels of employment, while providing temporary loans and financial assistance to relieve debt.
While that mission remains the same its focus should now be on the development of sustainable cities. The world faces an energy crisis as the production of oil peaks and then declines, as well a looming water crisis exacerbated by the increasing threat of droughts. Their mission should be now to focus on the development of renewable energy to power control-environment farms. And then add on the neighborhoods.
The thing is it may well beyond the scope of the World Bank and the IMF to implement. Therefore we need a summit meeting of the industrialized nations to forge a consensus along with working out just how this is to be accomplished.
That said, however, the first condition of the summit should be that loans or direct investments tied to the development of natural resources in the developing countries require that their leaders will channel their revenues into the development of sustainable projects while ensuring the workers receive wages sufficient for the necessities of life along with low interest loans to purchase their new homes —this means that the enlightened nations will only support democracies and work together to convince dictators and corrupt officials to rethink their positions.
There is also something that all nations should consider: that it is in their best interest that they shift to a global economy where trade is no longer a zero-sum game, but a sustainable end game where everyone wins--it's about cooperation and balancing trade.
There is a huge amount of work (enough to keep us all busy) to make the transition to would-be sustainable cities throughout the world, and that requires that nations with a trade surplus, who are shifting their economies (their workers) to the development of new cities, turn to those nations with a trade imbalance--an imbalance in employment--take their foreign reserves and invest in or directly trade for whatever is necessary to facilitate and expedite the building of their cities.
Thinking that pressuring China to revaluate its currency as a solution is wrong-headed. It will only create unemployment for China and inflation for others.
And for those who think that the conflict Marxism and liberal democracy as inevitable, they should think again—think about where sustainable are heading.
Sustainable cities are on built on three legs: they have a source of renewable energy, produce their own food, and have the ability to manufacture their own necessary consumer goods. Today we have the technology for the first two and eventually tomorrow’s technology will replace low-wage workers with robots as the final assemblers in fully automated factories--automated factories that can be scaled to provide the necessary consumer goods on a local level—eliminating middlemen and transportation costs.
When that day comes their will no be longer a struggle over the means of production and we’ll find ourselves at the end of history—the end of the historical ideological battle between liberal democracy and Marxism. And when that day comes we’ll also see the world’s population stabilizing just as in the industrial nations populations have stabilized (the U.S. the notable exception—but that works as it allows us build new cities) as they modernized and urbanized.
Here, Marxism finds its final resting place in the dustbin of history. Seeing history as written in stone—seeing conflict as the final solution—is a bad idea.
On other hand it is democracy, freewill, that puts forward the ideas to meet the challenges that a fast changing presents. But here too we have an ideology based on self-interest that is false and cowardly. Self-interest rightly understood is a collective-free-market-will that puts aside the issues that divides us and focuses on the ideas that insure the integrity of whole. The “invisible hand” as it guides ”the butcher, the baker, the brewer” has to be replaced with the hand of reason—hopefully enlightening those who subsist on corruption and greed
Humanity was conceived ignorance. As such Gorbachev reflecting on the past tells us ”Conflicts and wars have been an organic part of history.” Another way of saying it is that “there will be trials and tribulations.”
So we have choice, on both sides, continued conflict, continuing ignorance, or emerging cooperation. If conflict remains in place there’s another determinism to be considered—the historical determinism of weapons—best expressed by the dialectics of Marxism. The United States (the thesis) was followed by the rise of the Soviet Union (the antithesis) who together cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the means destruction and exchange—nuclear weapons and ICBM’s. Eventually their numbers will reach a critical mass, and a great leap occurs, leading not to a synthesis, but the victory of matter over mind, the end of all history. This was “the backbone of perestroika.” It is why the Soviet Union was allowed to collapse. It is why Gorbachev posits a new world order. As I see it, a new world order where sustainable cities mark the beginning of a new epoch that not only saves the planet, but also saves us our from ourselves.




Why is it necessary for the
Why is it necessary for the walkways to be elevated? It seems like that would be expensive and require more resources than simple footpaths or sidewalks, and thus counter to the ideals of sustainability. I have been studying urban planning and sustainability for a while. We will not have enough energy in the future for cars to be the dominant mode of transportation, so everything will have to be within walking distance and mass transit will be used instead of cars. The city has a minimum density to ensure that mass transit can be justified and so that there is a sufficient population to support clusters of services spaced apart at no more 1 mile intervals. There are only a few "rules" that the sustainable city must follow, and most of these are regulations on the physical form. Just by changing the physical form of the city you can get a 70% reduction in energy use. For more on this visit:
http://sustainablecity.blogspot.com/
The problems with the economy are complex, but basically it boils down to this: The Price System requires endless physical growth in order to operate. Without physical growth the jobs which are needed to supply the consumer with wages disappear. It is obvious that physical growth cannot continue forever. A steady-state economic system is required.
With continued automation of labor and improved efficiency, more goods are produced. At the same time, fewer man-hours of labor are required to produce a unit of a particular good. So at the same time that purchasing power needs to be increased, (in order to pay for the increase in production) purchasing power is reduced due to a decrease in the number of man-hours required. The solution to this is that people work longer hours and credit is extended to the consumer to ensure that enough money is returned to the producer - but this situation is not sustainable. The inevitable end result is what we are facing now with the credit crisis.
You may be interested in something called Technocracy, Inc, which was a movement of people formed before the Great Depression who were concerned with solving this very problem. One of their founding members was M. King Hubbert, who you may recognize as the father of peak oil theory. Technocracy, Inc proposed a system of distribution based not on money but on energy credits.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technocracy_Incorporated
Respone to comment
We pretty much already have a service economy. Thanks for the reading suggestion. I have one of own: “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” by John Maynard Keynes. You can probably find something internet to give you the gist of essay. Thanks for your comment. Walter Libby
Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren
There is a brief summary of that essay in my book "The Politics of Simple Living." Go to http://www.preservenet.com/simpleliving/PoliticsOfSimpleLiving.html#Two and scroll down a bit.
This book also talks about choice of work hours as the remedy for "technological unemployment." Go to http://www.preservenet.com/simpleliving/PoliticsOfSimpleLiving.html#Ch02 and scroll down a bit, until you see the graph showing that the standard work week in America declined steadily from 1840 until the depression, but stopped declining after World War II, when the government adopted the policy of stimulating demand to fight "technological unemployment."
Choice of work hours allows people to work as much as they need to be able to afford the goods and services they actually want - by contrast with the post-war conventional wisdom that we need to consume more goods and services whether or not we want them, purely to create extra work.
Incidentally, most nineteenth-century economists said the market would ultimately lead us to a no growth economy; the best known example is John Stuart Mill's chapter on The Stationary State. Only Marxists claimed that capitalism required endless growth.
Charles Siegel
Austrian School
Charles,
Are you familiar with the Austrian School of Economics, I think specifically Von Mises's work? It actually ties very neatly with your thoughts and your historical timelines... although it focuses on monetary policy and the supply of money via credit. Short summary, the Fed and the Executive Branch, has fed the public a steady diet of policies that encourage credit expansion (basically since the founding of the Fed) by making debt basically free. Free/cheap debt leads to inflation, which leads to ever rising asset values, which leads to one having to ever increase one's working hours just to afford anything (car/home/consumer items) and pay off the associated credit. It is unfortunate for the public, as they have to work ever harder to maintain a moderate lifestyle (irregardless of their poor decisions that you outline above), but fortunate for the politicians and bankers as they can spend and finance without regard to the future (as their dollars sent/loaned will be cheaper to pay off in the future with inflated money). Interesting graph of % debt to GDP (just showing the federal debt, when one includes personal debt the peaks are much higher):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_Public_debt_per_GDP_1791-2006.svg
The Fed began in 1913 I believe. Your comments above ar very interesting in light of my above reading. The same thing applies when you talk about prices. Until the 1900's prices in America generally deflated (except in times of war where the government basically printed money, which drove inflation), which makes sense as better technology lowered production costs and made goods cheaper... runs right along with working less I would think. Anyways, I thought it might prove interesting to you if you're not already familiar with their/his work.
Re: Austrian School
Ricardo:
I am somewhat familiar with the Austrian school, and I am sure you know that don't agree with their laissez-faire approach. You make interesting points about inflation, and you are right about there being essentially no inflation before the Fed. But as I said in my last post, I think the concern with inflation and unemployment is a matter of fine-tuning.
Beyond fine tuning, the big issues for the coming century are creating an economy that 1) doesn't cause global ecological collapse, and 2) gives people a more satisfying way of life.
The key is shorter work-hours, giving people the ability to choose to produce and consume less and to have more time for their families and their own interests.
To quote Solow: "It is possible that the United States and Europe will find that, as the decades go by, either continued growth will be too destructive to the environment and they are too dependent on scarce natural resources, or that they would rather use increasing productivity in the form of leisure." (From the same blog post at http://preservenet.blogspot.com/2008/10/robert-solow-on-no-growth-econom...).
We can have slower growth without higher unemployment, only by taking increased productivity in the form of leisure, as Solow suggests.
Charles Siegel
Price systems and endless growth
Charles,
It seems that both communism and capitalism require endless growth. This presentation is a bit simplified but does a decent job of explaining why a price system requires endless growth. As far as I know, both communism and capitalism are variants of a price system.
http://www.technocracy.ca/simp/purchase/page1.html
Capitalism And Growth
Prof. Robert Solow, who theory of economic growth won him the Nobel Prize for Economics, is quoted in the current Harper's Magazine as saying that capitalism does not require growth - as the classical economists said all along. See http://preservenet.blogspot.com/2008/10/robert-solow-on-no-growth-econom....
The technocracy presentation is about the familiar issues involved in fine-tuning the economy to avoid inflation and unemployment. Eg, it talks about savings and investment, just as Keynes did. I expect that new methods of fine tuning will have to be invented as we move to a slow-growth or no-growth economy: just as Keynesian economics was invented to deal with the excessive savings of the 1930s and 1950s, and as Monetarism was invented to deal with the inflationary environment since the 1970s, some other form of fine tuning will have to be invented to balance savings and investment and to avoid exessive debt in a slow-growth or no-growth economy.
In reality, there is no alternative to "the price system." The idea that "extraneous energy units" can be used to measure the value of output makes no sense at all: using the most energy to move the most stuff does not necessarily create the most value. And technocracy involves a centralized command-and-control economy which seemed very modern a century ago but which we now know is a failure.
Charles Siegel
Charles, your statement
Charles, your statement regarding energy accounting is a bit confusing. Energy accounting would work the following way: the per-unit energy cost of an item would be determined by looking at the energy used by a factory for a specified period of time and then looking at the number of a particular item produced during that time. The energy used by a factory for two hours divided by the number of a particular item produced in two hours gives us the cost of one unit of this item. Energy certificates or units (whatever you want to call them) are then issued to the public with the sum total of all certificates representing the energy available for use during that period. It would be calculated how much energy could be consumed by the entire nation over a period of time, say two years. After a specified period, say two years, new certificates would be issued so that the number of energy certificates in circulation is equal to the number of energy units available for use during the new period. One energy certificate in circulation represents one energy unit available for use during that period (this could be a calorie, kilowatt, joule, or whatever). If you are familiar with tradable carbon quotas, this is a pretty similar concept. Technocracy proposes that all items be priced according to the energy used in producing them (in much the same way that the embodied carbon of an item would be calculated under a carbon quota scheme).
Also, the economy proposed by Technocracy differs slightly from a command-and-control economy because there would be local and regional divisions of each functional sequence which would allow for local input/control and variety. It would be tracked how many of a particular item was sold so that production could be adjusted to match demand - this is what companies have to do anyway.
I think at the very least the ideas of Technocracy, Inc. bear serious consideration.
I have not had a chance to look at Prof. Solow's work but will be sure to check it out.
-Patrick
Energy And Value
The economic problem is that the ratios at which people are willing to exchange items is not based on the amount of energy that goes into the item. That is why technocracy needs a centralized authority to track sales and adjust production to match demand, as you say. This is commonly known as a command-and-control economy.
By contrast, market prices represent the ratios at which people are willing to exchange items, so the price system allows more decentralization of decision making.
We learned during the twentieth century that command-and-control doesn't work, which is why technocracy was a popular idea during the first half of the twentieth century but no longer is.
Charles Siegel
Off topic
The question is, can the development of new cities help pull us away from the abyss? Yes or no. If no what else is there? If yes email a friend.
New cities are not the entire solution.
Yes, it can help, but it isn't the entire solution. I have written a little on what it would take to create a sustainable city: http://sustainablecity.blogspot.com.
What I was attempting to point out is that there are fundamental problems with our economic system that can't be solved through the creation of new cities.
We have to reduce consumption through the creation of new cities, but we also have to address the fundamental problems of the price system which are shown in this presentation: http://www.technocracy.ca/simp/purchase/page1.html.
If we reduce consumption but still have an economy based on growth, we are still heading towards an inevitable cliff. It will just take longer to get there.
New cities are not unprecented
The idea of building new cities is not unprecedented. In the late 60s there was a movement to build hundreds of new cities. The National Committee on Urban Growth Policy, a private association funded by the Ford Foundation, made up of politicians and civic-minded individuals, sponsored by such prestigious groups as the National League of Cities, the National Association of Counties, the U.S. Conference of Mayors, published a book entitled The New cities. As they saw it, “If we allocate one-half of the coming] 100 million [increase in population] to existing peripheral growth around existing cities and 10 per cent to small towns and farms, the remaining 40 million would require the building of 20 cities of one million people each and 200 new towns of 100,000 each.”
To back up this proposal, the U.S. Congress, a supporter of new towns, affirmed it again by passing The Urban Growth and New Community Act of 1970. Its purpose was to underwrite part of the huge startup costs of new towns and so “encourage the rational, orderly, efficient… development and redevelopment of our cities… And to do so in a manner which will rely to the maximum extent on private enterprise.”
Many major corporations were behind movement. Gulf Oil, Westinghouse, U.S. Gypsum, and Sears Roebuck to name a few.” And others such as Chrysler, Ford, Phillip Morris, and Ralston were poised were poised to jump on the bandwagon.
Yet, within a few years the wheels fell off. All projects were in financial difficulty. This led to the shelving of proposed new towns and all government assistance. Eventually all new towns underwritten by the federal government fell short of their goals or ended in bankruptcy—costing the taxpayers millions. In 1983 Congress repealed the New Communities Act. In was the era of stagflation, and the movement fell victim to the contradiction.
Today corporations, as well as Congress, are again going to have to get behind movement again--corporations because they need consumers and Congress because it’s the right thing to do.
Yes, I should add that the
Yes, I should add that the other consequence of technological unemployment is unnecessary work and unnecessary duplication. My basic point is that if you look at the work which is being done today, the total amount of labor required to produce and distribute the goods and services we rely on is probably less than half of the the total work which is being done. The rest of the work is being done because the wage system we live under requires people to work long hours even if this is unnecessary to the production and distribution of goods/services.
Growth of any kind, even in the service industry, cannot continue forever. So an economy based on growth also has to come to an end at some point. At some point there is an "optimal maximum output" for a specific industry, after which production will level off rather than continuing to increase year after year.
The history of industry could be looked at as having different phases. The "growth" phase has passed and we are now entering a "steady-state" phase (although each individual industry has its own history, the average of all of them together gives us a trend).
Unfortunately, our economic systems require endless growth. Both socialism and capitalism are economic theories which evolved a) before the widespread automation of human labor b) in an era where resource limitations were not yet a major concern.