How Bad Will The Bubble Burst?

With so much wealth tied up in the housing industry, a market slow-down in the U.S. could have a larger economic effect than originally predicted.

1 minute read

August 9, 2006, 9:00 AM PDT

By Mike Lydon


"Home prices in some parts of the country are falling. Builders are scaling back. Bubble or not, the biggest housing boom in recent U.S. history is coming to an end.

Now here is the big question: How bad will the aftermath be? At this point, most economists expect a "soft landing," a gradual decline that won't derail the nation's economic expansion, now in its fifth year.

But there is a good chance they are being too optimistic. The boom has depended heavily on the upbeat psychology of consumers, builders and lenders. As moods swing, the landing could be very hard indeed.

'We could be underestimating the dark side," says Mark Zandi, chief U.S. economist at Moody's Economy.com and among the first to seek to quantify the housing boom's broader effects. "Euphoria could turn into abject pessimism very quickly.'"

Thanks to Ben Brown

Tuesday, August 8, 2006 in The Wall Street Journal

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

High-rise apartment buildings in Waikiki, Hawaii with steep green mountains in background.

Study: Maui’s Plan to Convert Vacation Rentals to Long-Term Housing Could Cause Nearly $1 Billion Economic Loss

The plan would reduce visitor accommodation by 25,% resulting in 1,900 jobs lost.

April 6, 2025 - Honolulu Civil Beat

Two yellow and white Dallas Area Rapid Transit light rail streetcars at station in Dallas, Texas.

North Texas Transit Leaders Tout Benefits of TOD for Growing Region

At a summit focused on transit-oriented development, policymakers discussed how North Texas’ expanded light rail system can serve as a tool for economic growth.

April 3, 2025 - KERA News

Blue and white Seattle Link light rail train exiting concrete Downtown Bellevue Tunnel in Bellevue, WA.

Why Should We Subsidize Public Transportation?

Many public transit agencies face financial stress due to rising costs, declining fare revenue, and declining subsidies. Transit advocates must provide a strong business case for increasing public transit funding.

April 7, 2025 - Todd Litman

Amtrak Acela

How to Make US Trains Faster

Changes to boarding platforms and a switch to electric trains could improve U.S. passenger rail service without the added cost of high-speed rail.

6 hours ago - Bloomberg CityLab

Mural showing tools and craft supplies with banner reading 'Things are made here' in front of makerspace in Columbia, Missouri.

Columbia’s Revitalized ‘Loop’ Is a Hub for Local Entrepreneurs

A focus on small businesses is helping a commercial corridor in Columbia, Missouri thrive.

7 hours ago - Next City

Close-up of wood log with emerald ash borer larvae tracks etched in the wood.

Invasive Insect Threatens Minnesota’s Ash Forests

The Emerald Ash Borer is a rapidly spreading invasive pest threatening Minnesota’s ash trees, and homeowners are encouraged to plant diverse replacement species, avoid moving ash firewood, and monitor for signs of infestation.

April 11 - The Bemidji Pioneer